Publications

Q1: How significant is the withdrawal of U.S. forces from Iraq’s cities?

Q1: What is on the agenda for the Swedish EU presidency?

Q1: Will energy and climate change be on the agenda for discussion at the G-8 Summit in L’Aquila, Italy, on July 8?

These assessments, compiled by the CSIS Transnational Threats Project, were drafted by members of the CSIS Trusted Information Network project on Southeast Asia (TIN-2). The Transnational Threats Project created and operated TIN-2 to examine extremism and transnational crime in Southeast Asia and the surrounding region.

On Sunday, June 28, members of the Honduran military stormed the presidential palace, arrested President Manuel Zelaya, and placed him on a plane to San José, Costa Rica, in the first Central American coup since the end of the Cold War.

These assessments, compiled by the CSIS Transnational Threats Project, were drafted by members of the CSIS Trusted Information Network project on Southeast Asia (TIN-2). The Transnational Threats Project created and operated TIN-2 to examine extremism and transnational crime in Southeast Asia and the surrounding region.

While natural gas can play a critical role during the transition to a secure, low-carbon economy, there are both climate and energy security risks associated with a dramatic shift to natural gas.

At the first formal Brazil, Russia, India, and China summit on June 16 in Yekaterinburg, Russia, reform of the international financial and monetary system topped the agenda of the heads of the world’s key emerging economies.

Japan is in the midst of a demographic transformation. The country’s population has started to decline and is projected to shrink nearly 30 percent by 2055. The fertility rate has fallen well below replacement. The elderly share (age 65 and above) of the population is 21.5 percent, and will reach 38.9 percent by 2050, making Japan the grayest nation in the world.

The core components of the U.S.-Japan security alliance – power projection, control of the seas, and deterrence – are intrinsically related to sea power.

This up-to-date analysis describes in detail the continued development of the Afghan National Security Forces (ANSF): the historic challenges—and missed opportunities—they have faced, their strengths and weaknesses, and the prospects for future force development.

Russia has been on a wild roller-coaster ride for the past three decades with no end in sight. Just in the past year as the global financial crisis deepened, the conventional perception of Russia has changed from “safe haven” from the economic tsunami to one of the hardest hit larger markets in the world.

U.S. policy toward Africa underwent a dramatic expansion under the tenure of President George W. Bush, marked by unprecedented resource flows, a major diplomatic effort in Sudan, and the establishment of historic initiatives in health, development, and security.

Government agencies, primarily the U.S. Department of Defense, currently face an unparalleled leap in complexity as the information revolution presents opportunities to create large, complex net-centric systems-of-systems. Furthermore, individual weapon systems are becoming more intricate as more technology is inserted, requirements mount, and capabilities increase.

There is no military balance in North Africa in the classic sense of the term. Although rivalries and tensions persist among Algeria, Libya, Morocco, and Tunisia, no state in the Maghreb now actively prepares for war with its neighbors, and the prospects of such conflicts are limited at best.

Moscow’s overarching ambition toward Europe is to expand the “Eurasian space” in which Russia is the dominant political player.

It is hard to counsel patience, particularly in a climate of artificial deadlines, instant media, and steadily larger gaggles of squawking heads. So far, however, President Obama has shown the right degree of restraint, while laying the groundwork to react as the outcome of events in Iran become clear enough to decide on the best policy.

We need to be very careful not to rush out ahead of events in judging what is happening in Iran.

Buried on page A8 of the June 16 Washington Post was a short article entitled “Russia Vetoes Georgia Monitors.” The article briefly outlined Russia’s veto of an extension of the 15-year-old mission of United Nations Observer Mission in Georgia (UNOMIG), which had been monitoring the situation in the breakaway region of Abkhazia.

No one should discount the importance of the Iranian election. If nothing else, it showed that even a rigged election, where a handful of candidates chosen and approved by the Supreme Leader and his supporters were allowed to run, could still expose serious opposition to the more extreme actions of the Iranian government.

Perhaps the most important international agreement sitting on President Barack Obama’s desk awaiting action is not an Israeli-Palestinian deal, or one with Iran or Pakistan. None are currently before him. Rather it is the yet-to-be-ratified U.S.–South Korea Free Trade Agreement (KORUS) signed by both nations almost two years ago.

In this issue:

The next few months will be critical for Japan’s defense and security policies. The National Defense Program Guidelines (NDPG) that outline the framework for national security policy are due by year’s end. This in turn provides the foundation for the Mid-Term Defense Program, which translates that outline into specific programs and purchases.

President Barack Obama has not yet defined the essentials of U.S. policy toward Latin America despite the painful economic situation in the region brought on by the U.S. financial collapse.The best posture for the U.S. government in dealing with Latin America is to demonstrate by its actions that the United States is sincere in wanting to help countries of the region.

The upcoming Washington summit meeting between ROK President Lee Myung-bak and U.S. President Barrack Obama provides a golden opportunity for the two allies to send an important message to North Korea, to their other Six-Party Talks interlocutors, and to domestic constituencies in both countries regarding how best to deal with the ongoing North Korean nuclear crisis.

Markets generally take a “Stop them before they kill again!” approach to Democrats and trade policy. This is true even though Smoot, Hawley, and Hoover were Republicans, and Ronald Reagan holds the record for dollar value of restrictions imposed on U.S.

President Obama has an opportunity to launch a major diplomatic initiative when he speaks in Cairo this week: his goal should be to convince allies and adversaries alike that America is ready to take the lead in creating a more positive and mutually rewarding political and economic relationship between the U.S.