- NewsletterOct 21, 2014
Amidst the Middle East headlines of recent months is a quiet but steady drumbeat of trouble out of Yemen. The country, by many accounts the poorest in the Arab world, attracts little attention next to struggles in Syria, Iraq, Libya and beyond. These other conflicts provide more compelling pictures and more gripping stories, and Yemen appears to many to be dusty and remote.
- CommentaryOct 10, 2014
On the surface, the easy and conventional explanation for the recent drop (20% since June) in oil prices - even in the face of heightened geopolitical risk/unrest in key oil producing regions - has focused mainly on the growth in supply (especially in the United States), lackluster global demand, and sizable global inventories. In combination, this trifecta has led market analysts to be both complacent (to date, this unrest has not impeded production volumes) and more recently, bearish. U.S. liquids production continues to grow; Russian exports, even in the face of sanctions remain high, and Iraq and Iran continue to export even as Libyan volumes go up and down.
- ReportOct 6, 2014
Iran’s rocket and missile forces serves a wide range of Iranian strategic objectives.
- CommentarySep 19, 2014
There are times the United States does not need an enemy in going to war. It poses enough of a threat to itself without any foreign help. The current debate over ground troops in Iraq and Syria threatens to be yet another case in point, compounding the American threats to America that have done so much damage in Vietnam, Afghanistan, and the earlier fighting in Iraq.
- ReportSep 18, 2014
The United States and its allies compete with Iran in a steadily more unsettled and uncertain Levant. The political upheavals in the Middle East, economic and demographic pressures, sectarian struggles and extremism, ethnic and tribal conflicts and tensions all combine to produce complex patterns of competition.
- CommentarySep 11, 2014
It may seem unusual to criticize a strategy you have both suggested and endorse, and it is important to stress from the outset that President Obama has almost certainly chosen a strategy that is the “best game in town” — if he fully implements it, gives it the necessary resources, and sustains it over time.
- CommentaryAug 29, 2014
The United States does not have good or quick options in dealing with the Islamic State, in part because it faces serious challenges in Iraq and Syria that cannot be separated from any efforts to weaken and destroy the Islamic State. This, however, is not a reason to stand and wait for better options that do not exist.
- ReportAug 20, 2014
It is unclear that the United States has any current assessments and strategy to deal with either these governance or economic issues.
- CommentaryAug 20, 2014
The political risks and instability in Afghanistan and Pakistan are all too apparent. It is unclear that Afghanistan can create a stable central government, and it is unclear that Pakistan’s present central government can survive. At the same time, this is only part of the story.
Critical Problems in Security
- CommentaryAug 18, 2014
There is no question that the Islamic State is the most immediate aspect of the Iraq crisis. It needs to be checked, its gains need to be reversed, and it needs to be driven out of Iraq if possible. But – and it is a critical but – Iraq requires far more.