Region Related Event Feeds

The US Cost of the Afghan War: FY2002-FY2013

bfite — Tue, 15 May 2012 00:00:00 -0400

It is surprisingly difficult to get a meaningful estimate of the total cost of the Afghan conflict, total spending on Afghan forces and total spending on various forms of aid. More data are available on US efforts – which have dominated military and aid spending, but even these data present serious problems in reliability, consistency, and definition.

Measures of "Progress" in Afghanistan in the Spring of 2012

sherry — Wed, 09 May 2012 00:00:00 -0400

Military Progress is only one of the tests that the US and ISAF must meet to accomplish a successful transition in Afghanistan – even on the basis of minimal security and stability or Afghan “good enough:”

Political Governance and Strategy in Afghanistan

jdunton — Mon, 30 Apr 2012 00:00:00 -0400

Afghanistan’s de facto system of governance is a politically driven “hybrid” order made up of shifting links among many different formal, informal, and illicit actors, networks, and institutions.

Homegrown Terrorism

jdunton — Fri, 27 Apr 2012 00:00:00 -0400

Incidents of “homegrown terrorism”—extremist violence perpetrated by U.S. citizens or legal U.S.

Afghanistan: The Uncertain Economics of Transition

sherry — Wed, 18 Apr 2012 00:00:00 -0400

The economics of Afghanistan are only one aspect of the challenges posed by US, allied, and Afghan efforts to accomplish a successful transition. There are many reasons that transition will either fail or be determined by Afghanistan’s internal dynamics and the role of regional states regardless of what the US, Europe, and other aid donors do:

Stabilization and Reconstruction After Iraq and Afghanistan

ian — Fri, 13 Apr 2012 00:00:00 -0400

The following conversation derives from an on-line chat between Global Forecast editors and two CSIS scholars on what stability operations might look like under the next administration.

As Washington debates the pace of withdrawal from Afghanistan, it may be time to look back and ask what we have learned as a country after a decade of massive state-building operations.

2012 Global Forecast

ian — Wed, 11 Apr 2012 00:00:00 -0400

Energy Risks in North Africa and the Middle East

sherry — Thu, 29 Mar 2012 00:00:00 -0400

The Burke Chair has developed a detailed estimate of energy risks in the Middle East and North Africa, drawing heavily on the analyses of the Energy Information Agency (EIA) of the US Department of Energy.

China and Afghanistan

jdunton — Mon, 26 Mar 2012 00:00:00 -0400

Because China is principally interested in preventing the destabilization of Xinjiang Province, it has broadly deferred to the United States and its Western allies who are leading military efforts, political reconciliation, and economic reconstruction in Afghanistan.

Dealing With the Growing Afghan and U.S. Tensions That Are Losing the War

ian — Mon, 19 Mar 2012 00:00:00 -0400

The US, its allies and Afghanistan face a war-losing crisis over the growing tensions between them. These tensions exist at many levels and on both sides.

TWQ: A Strategy of “Congagement” toward Pakistan - Spring 2012

Mon, 19 Mar 2012 00:00:00 -0400

A better way to conceptualize the Pakistani challenge is to recognize that Pakistan fits into a category of states that are both things at once: ally and adversary. The national interests of these states, as defined by key elites and policymakers, are consistent with some U.S. goals but opposed to others.

TWQ: Reversing Pakistan’s Descent: Empowering its Middle Class - Spring 2012

Mon, 19 Mar 2012 00:00:00 -0400

Pakistan is not, today, a failed state. However, for the first time since I started focusing on South Asia, in the past eight or so years, there is a real possibility that it could become one. Pakistanis must take full responsibility for this state of affairs. Their unwillingness to do so, and attempts to shift blame to the United States, India, and others, is evident.

The Need for a New U.S. Strategy: The Real Message of the Latest Crisis in Afghanistan

sherry — Mon, 12 Mar 2012 00:00:00 -0400

The United States needs to look beyond the latest incident and focus on the broader patterns in U.S. and Afghan relations. It needs to realize that its current strategy is becoming a façade that can only make things worse, and it needs to make a hard choice: Admit that the United States is headed toward an exit strategy or recast current U.S.

Governance and Militancy in Pakistan’s Southern Punjab Region

jdunton — Mon, 12 Mar 2012 00:00:00 -0400

Southern Punjab is a loosely defined region in Punjab Province that includes Multan, Dera Ghazi Khan, and the Bahawalpur Civil Divisions. Compared to other parts of the province, Southern Punjab has underdeveloped communication networks, poor infrastructure, weak social services institutions, inadequate agricultural inputs, and large gaps in municipal services.

U.S. and Iranian Strategic Competition: The Impact of Afghanistan, Central Asia, and Pakistan

sherry — Mon, 12 Mar 2012 00:00:00 -0400

US and Iranian efforts to bolster their strategic ties to Afghanistan, Pakistan, and Central Asia are another significant aspect of their confrontation. This aspect of the competition between them is analyzed in detail in U.S. and Iranian Strategic Competition: The Impact of Afghanistan, Central Asia, and Pakistan.

Afghanistan: The Death of a Strategy

sherry — Mon, 27 Feb 2012 00:00:00 -0500

It is always tempting to ride the headlines and focus on events like the marines urinating on a Taliban corpse, the burning of the Qur’ans, and the attacks on U.S. and International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) personnel that have followed in even the most secure and best-vetted facilities. It has been a truly grim week and one where these events raise questions about U.S.

Implications of the 2012 Defense Strategic Guidance for U.S. Special Operations Forces

sherry — Mon, 13 Feb 2012 00:00:00 -0500

On January 5, 2012, the Obama administration unveiled the 2012 Defense Strategic Guidance. Entitled Sustaining U.S. Global Leadership: Priorities for a 21st Century Defense, the document details a strategy for developing U.S. military forces through the year 2020.

Afghanistan: The Failed Metrics of Ten Years of War

sherry — Thu, 09 Feb 2012 00:00:00 -0500

The US has now been at war in Afghanistan for more than a decade, and is committed to stay through 2014 – with a possible advisory, aid, and funding presence that may extend to 2025. There still, however, are no convincing unclassified ways to measure progress in the war, or the trends in the fighting and level of violence.

The Real Issues in Afghanistan: Looking Beyond Undefined Policy Statements and Slogans

ian — Thu, 02 Feb 2012 00:00:00 -0500

Secretary’s Panetta’s comment about ending the US combat role in Afghanistan in 2013, and focusing on building up Afghan forces, have triggered a predictable firestorm of criticism, guesswork, and speculation.

Transition in the Afghanistan-Pakistan War: How Does This War End?

ian — Wed, 11 Jan 2012 00:00:00 -0500

The future of Afghanistan and Pakistan will be shaped by the way in which the US, NATO/ISAF, and major aid donors interact with the Afghan and Pakistani governments as they “transition” by withdrawing their forces and cutting their spending and aid.

Critical Issues for 2012

sherry — Mon, 09 Jan 2012 00:00:00 -0500

Critical Questions for 2012

ian — Fri, 06 Jan 2012 00:00:00 -0500

From international security and regional study to global challenges, CSIS experts will address many of the world's most difficult policy concerns and critical questions in 2012. To kick off the new year, we asked 25 of our scholars to identity what worries them most and what are the biggest opportunities in their respective areas of study.

The Afghan War At the End of 2011: A Status Report

sherry — Tue, 03 Jan 2012 00:00:00 -0500

If the US and its allies are to achieve any meaningful form of victory in Afghanistan, they must make a realistic assessment of progress to date. They must develop and begin to implement realistic transition plans during the first half of this year. The Burke chair at CSIS has developed a two-part report that shows the progress made to date in the war.

TWQ: Solving the Statebuilders' Dilemma - Winter 2012

Sun, 01 Jan 2012 00:00:00 -0500

The international mission to reconstruct Afghanistan may be the most ambitious statebuilding exercise ever undertaken. Since 2009 at least, the country has been the focus of tremendous international political will, extensive development assistance, and overwhelming military power.

Governance and Militancy in Pakistan’s Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Province

jdunton — Fri, 30 Dec 2011 00:00:00 -0500

The traditional weaknesses in service delivery within Pakistan’s provincial and district governments have arisen from the complex interplay of several factors. Resource mobilization for essential services has always been a challenge for provincial governments, which typically have been dependent on federal handouts.

Governance and Militancy in Pakistan's Khyber Agency

jdunton — Tue, 13 Dec 2011 00:00:00 -0500

In mid-October 2011, thousands of families were fleeing Khyber, one of the seven tribal agencies in Pakistan’s Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA), to refugee camps or relatives living outside of FATA. Their flight was in response to the announcement by the Pakistani military that it was undertaking a fresh round of operations against militant groups operating in the area.

The Afghanistan-Pakistan War at the End of 2011

sherry — Tue, 15 Nov 2011 00:00:00 -0500

The US faces hard decisions in the Afghanistan/Pakistan War that are growing steadily harder as the time before transition runs out, the US faces growing budget pressures, and the situation in Pakistan and Afghanistan becomes more unstable. The Burke Chair has prepared a report that assesses the chances for strategic success based on new US government, UN, and NGO reporting.

India and Afghanistan: Positioning for Withdrawal

NLombardo — Fri, 11 Nov 2011 00:00:00 -0500

Today, with U.S. and NATO forces beginning their withdrawal from Afghanistan, the historical sequel to the Soviet Union’s 1989 withdrawal from the country is unfolding. The newest wrinkle in this story is that India is now actively involved and trying to position itself accordingly.

Governance and Militancy in Pakistan’s Swat Valley

jdunton — Fri, 14 Oct 2011 00:00:00 -0400

In 2009, the Swat Valley became a focal point of Pakistan’s war against militancy and terrorism. The government signed a peace agreement effectively ceding control of the district to the local Taliban faction, allowing it to enforce its interpretation of Islamic law.

The Afghan War Ten Years On

sherry — Tue, 11 Oct 2011 00:00:00 -0400

The end of the first decade of the Afghan War has not been ignored in the media, but it has been largely ignore at the policy level. It has almost dropped out of sight in terms of Presidential and Congressional attention, and seems to have little interest to most Republican Presidential candidates.

TWQ: The Missing Endgame for Afghanistan: A Sustainable Post-Bin Laden Strategy - Fall 2011

Sat, 01 Oct 2011 00:00:00 -0400

Within hours of President Obama’s announcement of Osama bin Laden’s May 2 death, pundits and politicians from both the right and left were calling for a speedier withdrawal from Afghanistan. The discovery and targeted killing of bin Laden in a compound on the outskirts of Abbottabad,

Pakistan - Violence Versus Stability

ian — Mon, 26 Sep 2011 00:00:00 -0400

Pakistan is passing through one of the most dangerous periods in its history. An assessment of the growing patterns of violence and instability indicate that it may be approaching a perfect storm of threats, including rising extremism, a failing economy, chronic underdevelopment, and an intensifying war, resulting in unprecedented political, economic, and social turmoil.

Afghanistan and Pakistan: Continuing Security Challenges For the United States

ian — Fri, 23 Sep 2011 00:00:00 -0400

The US confronts a wide range of challenges if it is to win the Afghan conflict in any meaningful sense, and leave a stable Afghanistan and Pakistan:

Competition in Afghanistan, Central Asia, and Pakistan

ian — Thu, 15 Sep 2011 00:00:00 -0400

US competition with Iran has become the equivalent of a game of three-dimensional chess, but a game where each side can modify at least some of the rules with each move.

The War in Afghanistan: The Real Lessons of the Attack in Kabul

ian — Wed, 14 Sep 2011 00:00:00 -0400

There is a growing tendency to cover the war in Afghanistan by chasing the headlines from event to event. The kind of coverage turns a tragic helicopter crash into a crisis, and does the same for a largely symbolic attack on the ISAF and Embassy compound in Kabul.

Confronting an Uncertain Threat

jdunton — Wed, 07 Sep 2011 00:00:00 -0400

Al Qaeda and associated movements (AQAM) have become an increasingly diffuse security threat. Although the Afghanistan-Pakistan borderlands may have represented the epicenter of global terrorism in the past decade, al Qaeda’s various regional affiliates are growing in prominence.

Afghanistan Win or Lose: Transition and the Resource Crisis

Tue, 06 Sep 2011 00:00:00 -0400

The US confronts a wide range of challenges if it is leave a stable Afghanistan and Pakistan, to win the Afghan conflict in any meaningful sense:

U.S. Casualties in Afghanistan: The Need for Perspective

ian — Mon, 08 Aug 2011 00:00:00 -0400

There are good reasons to question whether we should stay in Afghanistan.

Afghanistan: Can Meaningful Transition Succeed?

sherry — Thu, 21 Jul 2011 00:00:00 -0400

It is easy to talk about transition in Afghanistan in broad conceptual terms. It is far harder to provide anything approaching a realistic set of strategic goals for such transition, and meaningful, detailed plans for accomplishing it.

Afghanistan, Pakistan, and the Art of the Possible

jdunton — Wed, 13 Jul 2011 00:00:00 -0400

On June 14, 2011, more than 200 policymakers and experts participated in an invitation-only, full-day working meeting at CSIS to discuss a constructive, realistic way forward in Afghanistan and Pakistan. The main topics were Afghan governance, the Afghan security sector, and Pakistani cooperation.

Rethinking a Resource-Based Strategy

ian — Tue, 12 Jul 2011 00:00:00 -0400

The US defense community is only beginning to address the full implications of the challenges it faces in terms of international economic competition and shrinking budgets.

TWQ: The Battle for Reform with Al-Qaeda

Fri, 01 Jul 2011 00:00:00 -0400

In the summer of 2005, Ayman al-Zawahiri, then-Osama bin Laden’s Egyptian deputy, began a direct debate with the United States about the nature of reform of the Middle East.

Transitioning to a New Strategy: 2009-2010

ian — Tue, 28 Jun 2011 00:00:00 -0400

The Burke Chair has prepared a seven-part analytic overview of unclassified metrics, and of how their current content relates to the challenges in policy, plans, resources, and management of the war that now reduce the prospects of victory.

Afghanistan and the Uncertain Metrics of Progress: Part 7: The Problem of Pakistan & the Probability of Grand Strategic Success

sherry — Mon, 27 Jun 2011 00:00:00 -0400

The Burke Chair has prepared a new report entitled The Problem of Pakistan and the Probability of Grand Strategic Success. It is available on the CSIS web site at http://csis.org/files/publication/110627_afghan_metrics_vii.pdf.

The War in Afghanistan: A Race Against Time, Resources, And The Enemy

sherry — Mon, 20 Jun 2011 00:00:00 -0400

The Burke Chair has prepared a report based on a recent trip to Afghanistan, and discussions with US officials and commanders. The full report is entitled The War in Afghanistan: A Race Against Time, Resources, and the Enemy. It is available on the CSIS web site at:

The Failures That Shaped (and Almost Lost) the Afghan War

ian — Fri, 17 Jun 2011 00:00:00 -0400

Governance and Militancy in Afghanistan and Pakistan

ian — Thu, 16 Jun 2011 00:00:00 -0400

The CSIS Program on Crisis, Conflict, and Cooperation (C3), formerly the PCR Project, has studied the link between the rise of nonstate armed groups (or militants, for the sake of simplicity) and the quality of local governance in Afghanistan and Pakistan: whether a link exists and, if so, what the United States can do about it, if anything.

Afghanistan and the Uncertain Metrics of Progress: Part Three: The Key Ongoing Challenges that Help shape the Outcome of the War

sherry — Tue, 14 Jun 2011 00:00:00 -0400

The Burke Chair has prepared a seven-part analytic overview of unclassified metrics, and of how their current content relates to the challenges in policy, plans, resources, and management of the war.

Afghanistan and the Uncertain Metrics of Progress : Part Five: Can Afghan Forces Be Effective By Transition?

sherry — Mon, 13 Jun 2011 00:00:00 -0400

The Burke Chair has prepared a new report entitled Can Afghan Forces Be Effective By Transition? It is available on the CSIS web site at http://csis.org/files/publication/110613_afghan_metrics_v.pdf

Preserving American Power

ian — Fri, 10 Jun 2011 00:00:00 -0400

Is the “American Century” over? I am asked this question in nearly every meeting and interview. The context will vary. One group will cite America’s perilous fiscal situation where we borrow funds to unsustainable levels and refuse to come together politically to solve the problem. Others cite a soaring Chinese economy that may overtake us by the end of the decade.