Region Related Event Feeds

Energy Risks in North Africa and the Middle East

sherry — Thu, 24 May 2012 00:00:00 -0400

The Burke Chair is issuing a new, expanded edition of its overview of Energy Risks in North Africa and the Middle East. This analysis is available on the CSIS web site at http://csis.org/files/publication/120524_MENA_Threat_Brief.pdf

Gulf Kaleidoscope: Reflections on the Iranian Challenge

ian — Mon, 21 May 2012 00:00:00 -0400

As the world works to prevent Iran from developing a nuclear weapon, there is widespread agreement on what failure looks like.

The Underlying Causes of Stability and Unrest in the Middle East and North Africa: An Analytic Survey

sherry — Mon, 21 May 2012 00:00:00 -0400

The Burke Chair is issuing a new, expanded edition of its overview of The Underlying Causes of Stability and Unrest in the Middle East and North Africa: An Analytic Survey. This analysis is available on the CSIS web site at http://csis.org/files/publication/120514_MENA_Stability.pdf

The Gulf Military Balance in 2012

ian — Fri, 18 May 2012 00:00:00 -0400

The Burke Chair at CSIS is issuing a new report called the Gulf Military Balance in 2012. This report is available on the CSIS web site at:

http://csis.org/files/publication/120518_Gulf_Military_Balance_2012.pdf

Middle East Notes and Comment: The Education Imperative

dholodnik — Fri, 18 May 2012 00:00:00 -0400

Education is a two-way street. Governments invest in education because it contributes to national strength, and individuals invest in education because it contributes to individual strength. While the precise balance differs, one side principally provides resources, the other principally provides time, and each derives benefit.

Homegrown Terrorism

jdunton — Fri, 27 Apr 2012 00:00:00 -0400

Incidents of “homegrown terrorism”—extremist violence perpetrated by U.S. citizens or legal U.S.

U.S. and Iranian Strategic Competition: The Sanctions game: Energy, Arms Control, and Regime Change

ian — Thu, 26 Apr 2012 00:00:00 -0400

Tightening sanctions and Iran’s reactions have become a race against time. Every day brings a new event as the competition between the US and Iran plays out on a global level. The Burke Chair at CSIS is issuing a new report that puts this competition in a broader perspective, as part of its on-going series on US and Iranian strategic competition.

The "Arab Spring" Becomes the "Arab Decade"

bfite — Mon, 23 Apr 2012 00:00:00 -0400

It is now all too clear that the “Arab Spring” is much more likely to be the “Arab Decade.” The pattern of political unrest that began in 2011 is driven by a mix of political, demographic, and economic issues in each country that has experienced serious unrest will take at least a decade to resolve in a form that can bring lasting stability.

Middle East Notes and Comment: Getting Syria Right

dholodnik — Fri, 20 Apr 2012 00:00:00 -0400

It has been a bad year for Middle Eastern dictators. Several have lost power or died trying to keep it, despite efforts to avoid a common fate.

Getting Syria Right

sherry — Fri, 20 Apr 2012 00:00:00 -0400

It has been a bad year for Middle Eastern dictators. Several have lost power or died trying to keep it, despite efforts to avoid a common fate.

Options for Dealing with Iran's Nuclear Program

ian — Wed, 18 Apr 2012 00:00:00 -0400

The growing confrontation with Iran over its nuclear, missiles, and asymmetric warfare programs presents major problems in risk assessment. The Burke Chair is circulating a briefing that uses a new method of risk assessment developed by Dr. Abdullah Toukan, a visiting fellow at CSIS and noted regional expert of military matters and arms control.

Arab Changes Yet to Come

ian — Fri, 13 Apr 2012 00:00:00 -0400

The pace of change in the Arab world has slowed since the heady days of January 2011. Then, it seemed incomprehensible that a month of protests could topple President Zine el-Abidine bin Ali of Tunisia after 23 years in power. The next month, it seemed even more incomprehensible that a mere 18 days of protests could force out President Hosni Mubarak of Egypt after 29 years of rule.

Public Diplomacy for a New Era

ian — Fri, 13 Apr 2012 00:00:00 -0400

You don’t hear much about public diplomacy these days. Following September 11, however, strategic communications and messaging were all the rage. Americans asked themselves why some people in the Middle East would do such a thing. The sense was that if we could communicate to people in that wider region, we could overcome misunderstanding and prevent another attack on America.

2012 Global Forecast

ian — Wed, 11 Apr 2012 00:00:00 -0400

U.S. AND IRANIAN STRATEGIC COMPETITION: The Impact of Latin America, Africa and Peripheral States

ian — Fri, 06 Apr 2012 00:00:00 -0400

US competition with Iran has become the equivalent of a game of three-dimensional chess, but a game where each side can modify at least some of the rules with each move.

Taking a Step Forward on Syria

sherry — Thu, 29 Mar 2012 00:00:00 -0400

Former UN secretary general Kofi Annan’s peace plan for Syria could be a step in the right direction. The plan calls for a Syrian-led political process under UN supervision to bring about a cessation of armed violence across the country. It also calls for dialogue between opposition forces and the regime of President Bashar Al-Assad.

Middle East Notes and Comment: The Iran Problem

dholodnik — Tue, 27 Mar 2012 00:00:00 -0400

As the world works to prevent Iran from developing a nuclear weapon, there is widespread agreement on what failure looks like: an Iranian bomb—or more likely, a number of Iranian bombs—that emboldens the Iranian government, threatens the Middle East and prompts many of Iran’s neighbors to develop their own weapons, destabilizing the most energy-rich part of the world.

TWQ: To Keep the Peace with Iran, Threaten to Strike - Spring 2012

Mon, 19 Mar 2012 00:00:00 -0400

While Iran’s nuclear program has been on America’s foreign policy agenda for the last twenty-plus years, one gets the unmistakable feeling that the issue is finally coming to a head.

TWQ: The Real Problem in U.S.–Israeli Relations - Spring 2012

Mon, 19 Mar 2012 00:00:00 -0400

Of all the foreign relationships of the United States, perhaps none is as closely watched and incessantly scrutinized as its relationship with Israel. Like a couple in counseling, U.S.–Israeli relations are the subject of endless analysis.

TWQ: Egypt’s Troubled Transition: Elections without Democracy - Spring 2012

Mon, 19 Mar 2012 00:00:00 -0400

With the convening of the country’s first post-revolutionary parliament in late January 2012, Egypt’s troubled transition has entered a new phase. As the battle over Egypt’s future shifts from Tahrir Square to the newly elected People’s Assembly, Egyptians may be facing their most difficult challenges yet.

TWQ: Reversing Pakistan’s Descent: Empowering its Middle Class - Spring 2012

Mon, 19 Mar 2012 00:00:00 -0400

Pakistan is not, today, a failed state. However, for the first time since I started focusing on South Asia, in the past eight or so years, there is a real possibility that it could become one. Pakistanis must take full responsibility for this state of affairs. Their unwillingness to do so, and attempts to shift blame to the United States, India, and others, is evident.

The Real Outcome of the Iraq War: US and Iranian Strategic Competition in Iraq

ian — Thu, 08 Mar 2012 00:00:00 -0500

Events in Iraq since the US withdrawal have made it all too clear that the US celebrated the end of the Iraq War without any realism as to the impact the war and US occupation had on Iraqi society. Iraq remains a violent and unstable place, with Iranian influence on the rise. The political, economic, and security situation in Iraq, as well as the US and Iranian competition in the co

U.S. Global Health Policy in Palestinian Hands?

jdunton — Wed, 07 Mar 2012 00:00:00 -0500

Palestinians, Israelis, Americans, and others are engaged in high-stakes brinkmanship over recognition of a Palestinian state at the United Nations. For the Palestinian leadership, pursuing UN statehood and membership in UN bodies holds out the prospect of greater international recognition and rare diplomatic leverage over both the United States and Israel.

Remembering Anthony Shadid

ian — Sat, 18 Feb 2012 00:00:00 -0500

I met him before he was Anthony Shadid. In the summer of 1991, he was just a skinny kid from the University of Wisconsin with a black mustache and an easy smile. We were studying Arabic together in Cairo. He was a third-generation Lebanese-American who had learned Arabic from scratch with an idea the he would become a Middle East correspondent.

Gaza's Health Sector under Hamas

jdunton — Thu, 16 Feb 2012 00:00:00 -0500

In less than three decades Hamas health care activities have transformed dramatically. This transformation in health care has mirrored Hamas’s own evolution, albeit incomplete, from a militant organization to a de facto government.

Middle East Notes and Comment: Slippery Choices

dholodnik — Thu, 16 Feb 2012 00:00:00 -0500

The Gulf Arab States have a dilemma. One reason that they have been able to avoid upheaval over the last tumultuous year in the Middle East is because they have made their already generous public subsidies even more generous. But within the short-term fix is a set of longer-term problems that could profoundly affect regional stability.

The Causes of Stability and Unrest in the Middle East and North Africa: An Analytic Survey

sherry — Mon, 13 Feb 2012 00:00:00 -0500

We have updated and greatly expanded our analysis of the metrics that can cause political instability and unrest in the Gulf and Middle East.

The Crisis in Syria

sherry — Wed, 08 Feb 2012 00:00:00 -0500

Q1: How has President Bashar al-Assad of Syria been able to remain in power in the wake of mounting unrest?

A1: A number of local and regional factors have and are likely to continue to enable Assad to hang on to power, at least in the short to medium term.

Russia’s Self-defeating Game in Syria

kate — Thu, 02 Feb 2012 00:00:00 -0500

Russia’s opposition to a new UN Security Council resolution calling on Syrian president Bashar al-Assad to step down should hardly come as a surprise. Reflecting a series of calculations about the Middle East as well as relations with the West, Moscow has staunchly backed Assad throughout the popular unrest roiling Syria over the past 10 months.

Egypt and U.S. Health Assistance

jdunton — Tue, 31 Jan 2012 00:00:00 -0500

Few countries have been as successful as Egypt in parlaying its strategic position into an economic asset. At the nexus of two continents, astride the Suez Canal, and with one-quarter of the Arab world’s entire population, Egypt has made itself an object of interest, and often an object of concern, among the world’s great powers for more than a half-century.

Measuring the Causes of Instability in the Middle East and North Africa

ian — Thu, 26 Jan 2012 00:00:00 -0500

The Burke Chair at CSIS has developed a new report entitled The Causes of Instability in the Middle East and North Africa, which is available on the CSIS web site at:

http://csis.org/files/publication/120126_MENA_Stability_Slides.pdf

Middle East Notes and Comment: The Arab Decade?

dholodnik — Tue, 24 Jan 2012 00:00:00 -0500

One year ago, the protests in Cairo’s Tahrir Square proved that Tunisia was not a fluke. Until January 2011, Tunisia didn’t resonate much in the Arab world. It was too small, too Francophile, and too socially liberal.

Egypt in Transition: Insights and Options for U.S. Policy

dholodnik — Wed, 18 Jan 2012 00:00:00 -0500

Egypt’s leadership has dashed expectations for a swift and complete shift from autocracy to democracy. The inherent conservatism of Egypt’s military leadership, combined with the political ineffectiveness of many of the activists who were at the center of public protests a year ago, is widening the gap between public expectations of the post-Mubarak era and its reality.

Critical Issues for 2012

sherry — Mon, 09 Jan 2012 00:00:00 -0500

Critical Questions for 2012

ian — Fri, 06 Jan 2012 00:00:00 -0500

From international security and regional study to global challenges, CSIS experts will address many of the world's most difficult policy concerns and critical questions in 2012. To kick off the new year, we asked 25 of our scholars to identity what worries them most and what are the biggest opportunities in their respective areas of study.

TWQ: Iran’s Declining Influence in Iraq

Sun, 01 Jan 2012 00:00:00 -0500

With the 2003 collapse of the Ba‘athist regime and the ascendency of Iraq’s Shi‘a majority in the country’s economic and political life, Iran and Iraq now seem at their most amicable since the 1955 Baghdad Pact when they signed treaties for greater cooperation and aligned against separatist movements as well as the Soviet threat.

The Broader Crisis in Iraq

ian — Tue, 27 Dec 2011 00:00:00 -0500

It is tempting to focus solely on the evolving political crisis and power struggle between Prime Minister Maliki and his opponents, but this is only part of the crisis in Iraq.

Iraq’s Broader Political and Governance Challenges

The End of the War in Iraq: A Graphic Overview

Thu, 15 Dec 2011 00:00:00 -0500

The US has sharply cutback its reporting on the Iraq War since the spring of 2011. There are, however, still a number of sources that help put both the Iraq War and the current state of Iraq into perspective.

Instability in Syria

ian — Tue, 13 Dec 2011 00:00:00 -0500

Syria’s stability and its role in regional security politics have become steadily more uncertain since early 2011. The country has now experienced eight months of popular protests. Despite a lack of political cohesion or unity of purpose among the country’s opposition forces, rural areas and smaller cities continue to experience increasingly armed unrest.

The Role of FTA Negotiations in the Future of U.S.-Egypt Relations

jdunton — Tue, 13 Dec 2011 00:00:00 -0500

Egypt, a long-time ally with profound influence on U.S. security, is facing the daunting prospect of making the transition from decades of authoritarianism to democracy.

Middle East Notes and Comment: Allies at Odds

mDziuban — Thu, 08 Dec 2011 00:00:00 -0500

The United States is used to looking for trouble from its enemies, but a growing set of problems will emerge from its allies. In the eastern Mediterranean, three U.S. allies are increasingly at loggerheads, and the situation is likely to get worse before it gets better.

Iran and the Gulf Military Balance

ian — Thu, 01 Dec 2011 00:00:00 -0500

This report has been extensively updated in the wake of the IAEA’s November 8, 2011 report which provides the most detailed indicators that Iran is taking steps toward producing nuclear weapons.

India and Afghanistan: Positioning for Withdrawal

NLombardo — Fri, 11 Nov 2011 00:00:00 -0500

Today, with U.S. and NATO forces beginning their withdrawal from Afghanistan, the historical sequel to the Soviet Union’s 1989 withdrawal from the country is unfolding. The newest wrinkle in this story is that India is now actively involved and trying to position itself accordingly.

The New IAEA Report and Iran’s Evolving Nuclear and Missile Forces

ian — Wed, 09 Nov 2011 00:00:00 -0500

Iran’s potential acquisition of nuclear weapons and the ability to arm its missiles and aircraft with such weapons represents the most serious risk that shapes US, Arab, Israeli and other international perceptions.

Rethinking the Arab "Spring": Stability and Security in Egypt, Libya, Tunisia, and the Rest of the MENA Region

ian — Tue, 08 Nov 2011 00:00:00 -0500

No one can ignore the short-term problems the political upheavals in Egypt, Libya, and Tunisia create for each country. New leaders must be chosen and security systems must be changed. The problems involved can kill political, economic and demographic reforms before they even begin.

Saudi Youth: Unveiling the Force for Change

dholodnik — Fri, 04 Nov 2011 00:00:00 -0400

The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia has been spared the unrest that recently swept many of its neighbors in the Middle East.

U.S. and Iranian Strategic Competition: The Gulf Military Balance

ian — Wed, 02 Nov 2011 00:00:00 -0400

US competition with Iran has become the equivalent of a game of three-dimensional chess, but a game where each side can modify at least some of the rules with each move.

International Assistance to the New Libya

sherry — Tue, 01 Nov 2011 00:00:00 -0400

With the death of Muammar el-Qaddafi, the decimation of his security apparatus, and the election of Prime Minister Abdurraheem el-Keib, Libya is poised to move to a new chapter in its political life.

Middle East Notes and Comment: The Predicament

dholodnik — Mon, 17 Oct 2011 00:00:00 -0400

For nearly four decades, the United States' reputation in the Middle East has been strengthened by its ability to broker peace between Israelis and Arabs. That ability is fading as the Palestinians seek to bypass the United States in their statehood bid and Israeli policies further alienate many American supporters.

Iran Delivers a Wake-up Call

sherry — Mon, 17 Oct 2011 00:00:00 -0400

Last week, the Obama administration revealed that it had caught an Iranian-American used car salesman conspiring to assassinate the Saudi ambassador to the United States and possibly carry out attacks on Saudi and Israeli diplomats in Argentina. At first glance, the plot did not jibe with familiar patterns of Iranian behavior.