Region Related Event Feeds

Energy Risks in North Africa and the Middle East

sherry — Thu, 24 May 2012 00:00:00 -0400

The Burke Chair is issuing a new, expanded edition of its overview of Energy Risks in North Africa and the Middle East. This analysis is available on the CSIS web site at http://csis.org/files/publication/120524_MENA_Threat_Brief.pdf

The Underlying Causes of Stability and Unrest in the Middle East and North Africa: An Analytic Survey

sherry — Mon, 21 May 2012 00:00:00 -0400

The Burke Chair is issuing a new, expanded edition of its overview of The Underlying Causes of Stability and Unrest in the Middle East and North Africa: An Analytic Survey. This analysis is available on the CSIS web site at http://csis.org/files/publication/120514_MENA_Stability.pdf

Homegrown Terrorism

jdunton — Fri, 27 Apr 2012 00:00:00 -0400

Incidents of “homegrown terrorism”—extremist violence perpetrated by U.S. citizens or legal U.S.

The "Arab Spring" Becomes the "Arab Decade"

bfite — Mon, 23 Apr 2012 00:00:00 -0400

It is now all too clear that the “Arab Spring” is much more likely to be the “Arab Decade.” The pattern of political unrest that began in 2011 is driven by a mix of political, demographic, and economic issues in each country that has experienced serious unrest will take at least a decade to resolve in a form that can bring lasting stability.

2012 Global Forecast

ian — Wed, 11 Apr 2012 00:00:00 -0400

The Causes of Stability and Unrest in the Middle East and North Africa: An Analytic Survey

sherry — Mon, 13 Feb 2012 00:00:00 -0500

We have updated and greatly expanded our analysis of the metrics that can cause political instability and unrest in the Gulf and Middle East.

Egypt and U.S. Health Assistance

jdunton — Tue, 31 Jan 2012 00:00:00 -0500

Few countries have been as successful as Egypt in parlaying its strategic position into an economic asset. At the nexus of two continents, astride the Suez Canal, and with one-quarter of the Arab world’s entire population, Egypt has made itself an object of interest, and often an object of concern, among the world’s great powers for more than a half-century.

Middle East Notes and Comment: The Arab Decade?

dholodnik — Tue, 24 Jan 2012 00:00:00 -0500

One year ago, the protests in Cairo’s Tahrir Square proved that Tunisia was not a fluke. Until January 2011, Tunisia didn’t resonate much in the Arab world. It was too small, too Francophile, and too socially liberal.

Critical Questions for 2012

ian — Fri, 06 Jan 2012 00:00:00 -0500

From international security and regional study to global challenges, CSIS experts will address many of the world's most difficult policy concerns and critical questions in 2012. To kick off the new year, we asked 25 of our scholars to identity what worries them most and what are the biggest opportunities in their respective areas of study.

Middle East Notes and Comment: Politics of Piety

ian — Fri, 18 Nov 2011 00:00:00 -0500

Many in the United States—and in the Middle East—worry that religious extremists in the Arab world are on the cusp of something big. Across the region, groups that blend religion and politics are injecting more religion into more open politics.

Rethinking the Arab "Spring": Stability and Security in Egypt, Libya, Tunisia, and the Rest of the MENA Region

ian — Tue, 08 Nov 2011 00:00:00 -0500

No one can ignore the short-term problems the political upheavals in Egypt, Libya, and Tunisia create for each country. New leaders must be chosen and security systems must be changed. The problems involved can kill political, economic and demographic reforms before they even begin.

International Assistance to the New Libya

sherry — Tue, 01 Nov 2011 00:00:00 -0400

With the death of Muammar el-Qaddafi, the decimation of his security apparatus, and the election of Prime Minister Abdurraheem el-Keib, Libya is poised to move to a new chapter in its political life.

Seeing Through the Fog: Transitional Governments in Libya and Elsewhere

dholodnik — Thu, 06 Oct 2011 00:00:00 -0400

On October 6, 2011, Dr. Jon Alterman delivered a talk at the Marine Corps University in Quantico, VA, entitled “Seeing Through the Fog: Transitional Governments in Libya and Elsewhere.” The talk drew on experience with transitions around the world to caution patience, identify the perils of U.S.

Maghrebian Militant Maneuvers: AQIM as a Strategic Challenge

Wed, 28 Sep 2011 00:00:00 -0400

Even as Libyan rebels seize Tripoli and Colonel Muammar el-Qaddafi’s repressive regime crumbles, the potential for violence stemming from North Africa may be growing. The Libyan conflict and the larger “Arab Spring” may represent a boon for one of al Qaeda’s most seasoned affiliates, al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM).

Confronting an Uncertain Threat

jdunton — Wed, 07 Sep 2011 00:00:00 -0400

Al Qaeda and associated movements (AQAM) have become an increasingly diffuse security threat. Although the Afghanistan-Pakistan borderlands may have represented the epicenter of global terrorism in the past decade, al Qaeda’s various regional affiliates are growing in prominence.

Leading from the Front: Europe and the New Libya

ian — Thu, 01 Sep 2011 00:00:00 -0400

Libyan Endgame?

After six months of inconclusive fighting accompanied by both criticism and adulation of Western support, Libyan rebels penetrated the capital city of Tripoli with NATO support on August 21.

Next Steps in Libya (Egypt, Tunisia, and Other States with New Regimes)

Mon, 22 Aug 2011 00:00:00 -0400

Qaddafi’s fall is certain to be accompanied by a wave of euphoria over the end of one of the most repellant dictatorships in the Middle East. American strategy, however, cannot be based on a triumph of hope over experience. We need to recognize that Libya -- like all of the other states that have become increasingly unstable since early 2011 -- is not going to suddenly emerge

Conference Report: Planning for Post-Gadhafi Libya

mDziuban — Tue, 02 Aug 2011 00:00:00 -0400

On July 25, CSIS convened approximately 50 experts from the government, diplomatic and expert communities to analyze the way forward in Libya. Among the key conclusions of the speakers are:

Al Shabaab

jdunton — Fri, 15 Jul 2011 00:00:00 -0400

Al Shabaab is an al Qaeda-affiliated organization that has risen rapidly to prominence in the midst of Somalia’s decades-long anarchy. The group has experienced two dramatic transformations in its short history.

Patterns in Terrorism in North Africa, the Middle East, Central Asia and South Asia: 2007-2010

sherry — Wed, 29 Jun 2011 00:00:00 -0400

The Burke Chair has prepared two new reports on terrorism in North Africa, the Middle East, Central Asia, and South Asia: 2007-2010. These reports draw on unclassified US reporting by the National Counterterrorism Center and the US Department of State.

The Libyan Uprising: an Uncertain Trajectory

sherry — Mon, 20 Jun 2011 00:00:00 -0400

The conflict in Libya is complex, and it is often hard to find the data that best describe key aspects of the war. Varun Vira of the Burke Chair has developed a background analysis of the war, entitled “The Libyan Uprising: An Uncertain Trajectory,” which is available on the CSIS web site at:

What Libya Tells Us about the Future of Multilateralism?

ian — Wed, 15 Jun 2011 00:00:00 -0400

The UN-mandated, NATO-led military action in Libya highlights a number of fundamental characteristics of multilateral politics. Libya reminds us of the continued relevance of and need for multilateral institutions to help states do together what they cannot or will not do alone.

Bracing For Aftershocks: North African Politics and Security

ian — Wed, 15 Jun 2011 00:00:00 -0400

North Africa is bracing itself. Not since Algeria’s brutal civil war a generation ago has the region witnessed so much turmoil and uncertainty. Angry and frustrated masses demanding improved governance and greater socioeconomic opportunities present regimes with new challenges. The need for governments to address these grievances is urgent.

The Libyan Intervention: a Study in U.S. Grand Strategy

ian — Tue, 14 Jun 2011 00:00:00 -0400

The intervention in Libya has sparked another debate over the role of grand strategy in U.S. foreign policy formulation. Analysts are asking if there is a new “Obama Doctrine” or if President Obama is simply “muddling through” and “ad hoc-ing it” from one foreign policy crisis to another.

Middle East Notes and Comment: The Earthquake

Wed, 27 Apr 2011 00:00:00 -0400

When Hosni Mubarak resigned on February 11, it was an earthquake that shook the entire region, and shakes it still. Egypt had long ago lost its mantle as the leader of the Arab world, but it was certainly its center of gravity. How Egypt emerges from its current uncertainty will shape the coming decades in the entire Middle East.

Libya: Will the Farce Stay With US (And France and Britain)?

ian — Wed, 20 Apr 2011 00:00:00 -0400

At some point in time, it will be critical to examine the historical record behind the French, British, and US intervention in Libya and why they dragged NATO and allies like Qatar and the UAE into such a gamble.

Libya: “No Fly” to “Unstable Stalemate” or “Regime Kill?”

mentman — Wed, 06 Apr 2011 00:00:00 -0400

It is hard to get at the reality of US and allied operations in Libya, in part because there have to be serious limits to public disclosures of both the full nature of those operations and the real mission.

Libya: Managing a Fragile Coalition

mentman — Thu, 24 Mar 2011 00:00:00 -0400

The members of the broad international coalition implementing the no-fly zone over Libya and military actions to protect civilians from attacks by the Muammar el-Qaddafi regime have differing interests, political sensitivities, and goals. Sustaining the coalition will require a difficult balancing act.

Seizing the Multilateral Moment in Libya

sherry — Tue, 22 Mar 2011 00:00:00 -0400

A few weeks ago, I wrote about Libya presenting the world with a multilateral moment and how the UN Security Council had taken a positive step in meeting that moment by adopting resolution 1970. At that point, calls for military action against the regime of Muammar el-Qaddafi were only beginning and had gathered little support.

Libya: Three Possible Outcomes and the Role of Governance, Money, Gas, and Oil

sherry — Tue, 22 Mar 2011 00:00:00 -0400

Stability in the Middle East and North Africa: the other Side of Security

mentman — Mon, 14 Mar 2011 00:00:00 -0400

National security is normally seen in terms of military strength and internal security operations against extremists and insurgents. The upheavals that began in Tunis have highlighted the fact that national security is measured in terms of the politics, economics, and social tensions that shape national stability as well.

Can Chávez Rescue Qaddafi?

mentman — Wed, 09 Mar 2011 00:00:00 -0500

When protests against Muammar Qaddafi’s 41-year rule began to envelop Libya in late February, Venezuelan president Hugo Chávez may have been wondering if his 12-year-old regime could be next.

Update on Libyan Oil Production

mentman — Wed, 09 Mar 2011 00:00:00 -0500

The trajectory of Libyan oil production remains concerning. Estimates of current shut in production vary from a low of 500,000 barrels/day (b/d) to over 1 million, from a total production of 1.6 million barrels/day (mmb/d).

Libya as a Multilateral Moment

mentman — Thu, 03 Mar 2011 00:00:00 -0500

The extraordinary violence carried out by Muammar el-Qaddafi’s regime in Libya has captured the world’s attention and created a multilateral moment. Despite shocking acts, such as the aerial bombardment of civilians, it has been clear that for the time being, no individual government would or could take responsibility to resolve the situation.

Middle East Civil Unrest and Oil Prices

ian — Tue, 22 Feb 2011 00:00:00 -0500

Q1: How have increased political tensions and antigovernment demonstrations in the Middle East and North Africa affected global oil supplies?

A Threat Transformed

jdunton — Tue, 08 Feb 2011 00:00:00 -0500

Events in Egypt

ian — Sat, 29 Jan 2011 00:00:00 -0500

Q1: What is at stake for the United States in Egypt?

What's Next for Tunisia?

mentman — Thu, 20 Jan 2011 00:00:00 -0500

Tunisia remains in a state of emergency. The 23-year rule of Zine al-Abidine Ben Ali, one of the Arab world’s most ruthless and efficient autocrats, has crumbled. Few are sorry to see him and his cronies go, but it remains unclear what kind of governing system will take his place.

The Challenges of a Post-Reunification Korea: Lessons from Reconciled Civil Conflicts

nanderson — Wed, 15 Dec 2010 00:00:00 -0500

The unhappy division of Korea is unique in many respects. When Korea contemplates reunification, however, it is necessary to look for family resemblances, drawn from history, that alert Korea to the challenges of unification that lie ahead. But which models and which historical cases provide relevant guidance?

الذهب الزُلال

mentman — Mon, 13 Dec 2010 00:00:00 -0500

لن تنبع القلاقل السياسية والاجتماعية خلال العشرين عاما القادمة في الشرق الأوسط من الحروب، أو الإرهاب، أو الثورات، بل من منبع مفاجئ مستتر- إنه المياه.

The North African Military Balance

amausner — Wed, 08 Dec 2010 00:00:00 -0500

The military balance in North Africa, and internal security developments in each country, receive less attention than the Arab-Israeli balance and the balance in the Gulf. They are, however, an important part of the security of world energy exports, and the struggle against terrorism and extremism.

Capacity for Change

jdunton — Wed, 07 Apr 2010 00:00:00 -0400

The U.S. government is in the midst of a serious review of how to engage more effectively with developing countries. A significant part of this reflection entails debates about how best to reform foreign aid, and there is a stunningly broad consensus that improvement is needed across the board. New legislation has recently been introduced in the U.S. Congress.

U.S. Peacefare

jdunton — Sun, 28 Feb 2010 00:00:00 -0500

"The past few years have seen a number of reforms and initiatives within the U.S. government that address the growing challenges of building peace. Dane Smith’s book provides the first comprehensive survey of the range of U.S. agencies involved in peace building. At the same time, he addresses the fundamental concern over the increased power of the military—at the expense of civilian agencies—in stabilization and reconstruction operations. Important decisions are now being made on the future direction of U.S. foreign policy. A central task in arriving at these decisions will be determination of the proper role of both civilian and defense agencies in peace building.”

Middle East Notes and Comment: Victory over al-Qaeda

Tue, 23 Feb 2010 00:00:00 -0500

In an important way, al-Qaeda has been defeated. At one time, many Muslims admired the organization for its courageous opposition to Western domination, and many Westerners feared that al-Qaeda might draw Muslim communities into a battle with the West. Immediately after the events of September 11, 2001, it was not always clear how the battle for Muslim hearts and minds would end up.

Transnational Threats Update November-December 2009 - Vol. 7, No. 9

Tue, 19 Jan 2010 00:00:00 -0500

The Transnational Threats Update is produced by the Transnational Threats Project and provides monthly reports and analysis on terrorism, drug trafficking, organized crime, money laundering, and arms trafficking. The newsletter draws on several U.S.

Homebound Security

jdunton — Thu, 03 Dec 2009 00:00:00 -0500

The establishment of security and the rule of law are indispensable for effective post-conflict reconstruction. A safe and secure environment provides the space for societies to begin the difficult task of rebuilding their economies and governing institutions.

President Obama in Cairo

sherry — Wed, 03 Jun 2009 00:00:00 -0400

In Cairo on Thursday, President Barack Obama will once again wade into the difficult issue of religion. More than 1 billion listeners around the world will be paying particular attention.

Since day one of his presidency, with his choice of Evangelical pastor Rick Warren to deliver the inaugural invocation, President Obama has dealt with religion.

Public Health in Africa

Mon, 20 Apr 2009 00:00:00 -0400

Nowhere are global public health challenges more acute than in sub-Saharan Africa. With just 13 percent of the world’s population, this region carries 24 percent of the global burden of disease. The continent’s immense disease burden and frail health systems are embedded in a broader context of poverty, underdevelopment, conflict, and weak or ill-managed government institutions.

Strengthening AFRICOM's Case

Wed, 05 Mar 2008 00:00:00 -0500

Over the past six months, the CSIS Africa and International Security Programs have closely tracked the development of U.S. Africa Command by interviewing key U.S. government officials, consulting expert opinion in the United States and internationally, and canvassing views from Africa.

President Bush's Africa Trip

Tue, 19 Feb 2008 00:00:00 -0500

President Bush’s five-country Africa tour reminds us that presidential travel to Africa has become a new norm, following President Clinton’s visits (in 1998 and 2000) and President Bush’s 2003 trip. It brings to our attention just how much U.S.