Pacific Partners Outlook: Australia Has a Larger Role to Play in the South China Sea

Volume 5 | Issue 5 | June 4, 2015

Both the tone and substance of South China Sea discussions in Australian policy circles has undergone an important shift in recent months. What was previously a second-tier security concern to be watched closely and engaged diplomatically, but at a safe distance, has become a heated discussion about concrete responses. Australian policymakers are as concerned as anyone about China’s breakneck land reclamation in the Spratly Islands and the threats, both legal and military, they pose to the global commons. Australian officials and thinkers are seriously considering options to contest Chinese assertiveness, in tandem with the United States and other partners, which would have seemed distant possibilities a year ago.

Defense Minister Kevin Andrews was dragged into the contentious discussion about proposed U.S. patrols in waters and airspace near some of China’s artificial islands when he was asked on May 31 about Australian forces joining such “freedom of navigation” operations. Andrews insisted that the United States has not made a request for joint patrols, but he did not dismiss the possibility either. In fact, the defense minister asserted that Australia has long conducted patrols of its own over South China Sea waters (though he did not say directly over the Spratlys) and would continue to do so regardless of any possible Chinese objections. Meanwhile, the Wall Street Journal citedunnamed U.S. and Australian officials who confirmed that the United States has been sounding out lower levels of the Australian government about undertaking joint freedom of navigation patrols.

The suggestion that Australia could follow the United States in taking a more assertive role in contesting Chinese claims in the South China Sea, or at least their ambiguity, has provoked heated disagreement within Australian policy circles. Many of the detractors of greater Australian involvement have either willfully or mistakenly misinterpreted U.S. proposals, most recently regarding the scope and purpose of freedom of navigation operations. And they have often overstated the potential consequences of Australian involvement and the degree to which Washington is pushing Canberra to act. Even worse, they are wrong in framing the issue as one of Australia stumbling into a contest between China and the United States—it is a matter of the entire region’s national interests, and Australia’s more than most.

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The Month That Was

  • Australia continues South China Sea patrols
  • New Zealand government misses promised surplus
  • Japan pledges increased aid during summit with Pacific Island leaders

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Looking Ahead

  • Asia-Pacific Economic Integration and the Role of the United States and Japan
  • Palau: Crossroads of Security and Conservation in the Pacific
  • Pacific Day 2015

Read more | Read Newsletter in PDF


Australia Has a Larger Role to Play in the South China Sea

By Gregory Poling (@GregPoling), Fellow, Pacific Partners Initiative (@PacPartnersDC), CSIS

June 4, 2015

Both the tone and substance of South China Sea discussions in Australian policy circles has undergone an important shift in recent months. What was previously a second-tier security concern to be watched closely and engaged diplomatically, but at a safe distance, has become a heated discussion about concrete responses. Australian policymakers are as concerned as anyone about China’s breakneck land reclamation in the Spratly Islands and the threats, both legal and military, they pose to the global commons. Australian officials and thinkers are seriously considering options to contest Chinese assertiveness, in tandem with the United States and other partners, which would have seemed distant possibilities a year ago.

Defense Minister Kevin Andrews was dragged into the contentious discussion about proposed U.S. patrols in waters and airspace near some of China’s artificial islands when he was asked on May 31 about Australian forces joining such “freedom of navigation” operations. Andrews insisted that the United States has not made a request for joint patrols, but he did not dismiss the possibility either. In fact, the defense minister asserted that Australia has long conducted patrols of its own over South China Sea waters (though he did not say directly over the Spratlys) and would continue to do so regardless of any possible Chinese objections. Meanwhile, the Wall Street Journal citedunnamed U.S. and Australian officials who confirmed that the United States has been sounding out lower levels of the Australian government about undertaking joint freedom of navigation patrols.

The suggestion that Australia could follow the United States in taking a more assertive role in contesting Chinese claims in the South China Sea, or at least their ambiguity, has provoked heated disagreement within Australian policy circles. Many of the detractors of greater Australian involvement have either willfully or mistakenly misinterpreted U.S. proposals, most recently regarding the scope and purpose of freedom of navigation operations. And they have often overstated the potential consequences of Australian involvement and the degree to which Washington is pushing Canberra to act. Even worse, they are wrong in framing the issue as one of Australia stumbling into a contest between China and the United States—it is a matter of the entire region’s national interests, and Australia’s more than most.

As a maritime nation and Indo-Pacific middle power, the protection of the global maritime commons, international rules and norms at sea, and freedom of navigation and overflight are vital Australian interests. Australia should be gravely concerned by the ambiguity of China’s claims, especially in light of its reclamation activities, for the same reasons that others like India, Japan, and non-claimant Southeast Asian states are. Who controls what bit of dry or submerged sand or coral is not a vital interest. But seeing an Asia Pacific in which an emergent China plays by the same rules and norms as everyone else, not one in which might makes right, certainly is.

So Canberra should have every incentive to engage in joint freedom of navigation patrols, within narrow limits, with the United States and potentially other like-minded partners such as Japan, the Philippines, and Vietnam. Meanwhile, Washington must convince regional partners to work not just with it, but with each other in peacefully contesting Chinese assertiveness and finding creative means to pressure Beijing to clarify its claims in accordance with international law. Allowing a narrative to take hold that the South China Sea is a contest between China and the United States is counterproductive; claimants and interested parties like Australia must help send the message that it is about all of them.

Australia is already playing a helpful role in capacity building around the region. But it is time that Canberra step into a more active role, just as Tokyo has done. For example, small numbers of Australian troops take part in joint training and exercises such as the U.S.-led Balikatan in the Philippines, where Australia is the only other country aside from the United States with a visiting forces agreement. But much more could be done to help build Filipino capacity on everything from search and rescue to maritime domain awareness.

More concrete steps by Canberra to contest Chinese actions in the South China Sea do not need to be framed as overtly adversarial, nor do they negate the importance of the diplomatic heft Australia has already been bringing to bear on the topic. And they definitely do not need to follow the United States’ lead, nor should they. Where joint activities with the United States make sense, they should be pursued. But Australian policymakers are seeking options to respond to the South China Sea disputes because they directly infringe on Australian national interests, not because of pressure from an ally. Cooperation with a range of actors would signal that loud and clear to Beijing, which could benefit everyone.

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The Month That Was

Australia

Japan to bid for Australian submarine contract. Japan’s National Security Council on May 18 gave its approval for Tokyo to disclose technical data about Japanese submarines to Australian authorities after being invited to bid for a contract to supply Australia’s next generation of submarines. Australia is replacing its aging Collins-class subs and officials have previously expressed a preference for Japan’s non-nuclear Soryu stealth subs. Political pressure has been mounting in Australia for the submarines to be built domestically.

Australia continues South China Sea patrols. Defense Minister Keven Andrews on May 31 said Australia is not concerned about possible Chinese objections to flights over disputed waters and will continue to fly long-range patrols over the South China Sea. Andrews said the United States has not asked Australia to contribute to joint patrols, or freedom of navigation operations, in waters China considers its own but which Australia and the United States see as international waters. The United States has reportedly been sounding out lower-level Australian officials about joining such patrols, according to a May 31 Wall Street Journal report.

Opposition introduces same-sex marriage bill. Opposition Labor Party leader Bill Shorten on June 1 introduced a bill in Parliament to legalize same-sex marriage in Australia. Prime Minister Tony Abbott has indicated he will not support the bill, though it remains unclear whether the governing Liberal-National coalition will allow members to vote according to their consciences rather than along party lines. Shorten has called for a bipartisan approach, asking for a Liberal Party lawmaker to cosponsor the bill, which would make it likely to pass by the end of 2015.

Government slashes foreign aid budget by 20 percent. Australia’s government on May 12 issued its annual budget, which would see foreign aid cut by $2.8 billion over the next three years. Canberra intends to cut aid to neighboring Indonesia by 40 percent, which comes at a sensitive time after Indonesia’s execution of two Australian citizens in April drove relations to a new low. Australia will also cut aid to Sub-Saharan Africa by 70 percent, and to Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Myanmar, and Pakistan by 40 percent each. Aid to Cambodia, Nauru, and Papua New Guinea, which host asylum seekers caught coming to Australian shores, will be largely unaffected.

Abbott’s government gains ground in polls. The government’s new budget delivered a much-needed bounce in poll numbers for Prime Minister Tony Abbott, who was preferred over Labor Party leader Bill Shorten 44 percent to 39 percent in a May 18 Fairfax-Ipsos poll. The survey also showed an increase in overall support for the governing coalition, which was favored by 43 percent of respondents, compared to 35 percent support for Labor and 13 percent for the Greens. Abbott and his government trailed the opposition by a sizeable margin in most prior polls.

Vietnamese asylum seekers held at sea by Australia before being returned. Gen. Andrew Bottrell, commander of Australia’s Operation Sovereign Borders, said May 25 that the Australian Navy had intercepted 46 Vietnamese asylum seekers and held them aboard a Navy ship for a nearly month before repatriating them. Authorities took the group into custody on March 20 and returned them to Vietnam on April 18. Bottrell said authorities interviewed each asylum seeker and rejected their refugee claims, but the UN High Commissioner for Refugees expressed concern over the screening at sea.

Norfolk Island autonomy removed. The Australian Parliament voted May 12 to revoke Norfolk Island’s long-standing autonomy, under which the island has governed its own internal affairs via a legislative assembly since 1979. The decision has angered residents on the island, who will now be subject to Australian laws and regulations, including federal taxes. Norfolk Island’s outgoing chief minister, Lisle Snell, is considering taking its case for self-determination to the United Nations. The Australian government claims local authorities have been unable to deliver an acceptable standard of health care, education, and other services.

New Zealand

Government misses promised surplus. New Zealand’s government on May 21 announced a modest budget deficit of about $500 million for the fiscal year ending in June, despite Prime Minister John Key’s National Party having campaigned in 2014 on a platform of returning to surplus this year. The government projected a small surplus of about $125 million for the 2015/2016 fiscal year. Finance Minister Bill English attributed the deficit to weak inflation resulting in lower than expected tax revenue. He said the government would not further cut public spending or social services to meet its targeted surplus.

New Zealand to open embassy in Baghdad. Foreign Minister Murray McCully on May 28 announced that New Zealand will open an embassy in Baghdad, Iraq, which will be colocated within the Australian Embassy. Career diplomat James Munro, who will be tasked with supporting New Zealand troops taking part in a multilateral operation to train the Iraqi army at Camp Taji, north of Baghdad, will serve as New Zealand’s ambassador.

Authorities attempt to cool Auckland housing market. Authorities in May introduced a number of measures to cool the housing market in Auckland, where property values are surging. The central bank on May 13 announced new loan-to-value restrictions specific to Auckland that require banks to collect 30 percent deposits on loans. The government on May 17 announced that investors selling property within two years of purchase will be taxed on capital gains and that nonresident investors will have to register with tax authorities. In addition, the May 21 budget stipulated that government-owned land in Auckland will be opened to residential development.

Prime Minister Key suffers from ponytail controversy. Prime Minister John Key’s popularity has dropped below 40 percent for the first time in over a year, according to a Reid Research poll released on June 2 that suggested the prime minister’s April 22 admission that he had repeatedly pulled an Auckland cafe waitress’s ponytail is partially to blame. The waitress, Amanda Bailey, wrote in an anonymous blog post that Key had pulled on her ponytail over a number of months. Key apologized, saying that his actions were a practical joke, but 52 percent of respondents to the Reid Research poll found his actions inappropriate.

Green Party elects new coleader. The Green Party on May 29 elected freshman lawmaker James Shaw as its new male coleader, replacing Russel Norman. The Green Party maintains one male and one female leader, who is currently Metiria Turei. Shaw beat the favorite, Kevin Hague, who entered Parliament in 2008 and is number three on the Green’s seniority list, and two other candidates. Shaw, a former business consultant, plans to build the economic credibility of the party, which hopes to enter government in coalition with Labour following the 2017 elections.

Pacific Islands

Japan pledges increased aid during summit with Pacific Island leaders. Japan on May 22–23 hosted its seventh Pacific Islands Leaders Meeting (PALM), attended by leaders of the 16 members of the Pacific Islands Forum, including Fiji for the first time since its 2006 coup. Japanese prime minister Shinzo Abe pledged to provide about $450 million in aid to the region from 2015 to 2017—about the same annual level of assistance Tokyo has provided over the last decade. Abe indicated during his keynote address that climate change mitigation and disaster resilience will be the primary focus of Japanese assistance.

U.S. lifts ban on weapons exports to Fiji. The U.S. State Department on May 29 amended the International Traffic in Arms Regulations to allow the export of weapons to Fiji without public input. The United States banned weapons exports to Fiji following then-military leader Frank Bainimarma’s 2006 coup. The U.S. government has recognized Bainimarama’s current government, which was elected in democratic elections in September 2014, and has lifted travel restrictions and other sanctions against Fiji.

PNG lifts ban on Australian travel to Bougainville. Papua New Guinea (PNG) foreign minister Rimbink Pato said June 1 that his government had lifted a ban on Australian citizens traveling to the autonomous region of Bougainville. PNG introduced the ban on May 18 after Australia released a federal budget that included plans to establish a diplomatic mission in Bougainville. PNG prime minister Peter O’Neill originally said his government had not been consulted about the mission, but Australian foreign minister Julie Bishop disputed that claim. Both governments have since described the incident as a “misunderstanding.”

Bougainville holds general elections. Voting in Papua New Guinea’s autonomous region of Bougainville opened May 10 with voters choosing the president and 39-member parliament that will prepare for an independence referendum to be held before 2020. Ballot counting continues and final results are due June 8, with incumbent president John Momis expected to be returned to power. Bougainville has a five-year window, beginning in June, during which it must hold a referendum on independence according to the terms of a 2001 peace agreement signed with the central government.

MSG meeting fails to address West Papuan bid for membership. Leaders from the six-member Melanesian Spearhead Group (MSG) met in Port Moresby on May 21 but failed to reach a decision on a West Papuan group’s bid for membership. The six MSG members are Fiji, Kiribati, Papua New Guinea (PNG), the Solomon Islands, Vanuatu, and the pro-independence Kanak National Liberation Front from New Caledonia. The failure to reach a decision on the West Papuan group’s membership bid came amid a flurry of diplomatic activity from Indonesia, which is strongly opposed to the bid. Indonesian president Joko Widodo had visited Port Moresby on May 11 for discussions with Prime Minister Peter O’Neill, including on the question of West Papua.

Samoan prime minister cuts government spending in budget. Samoan prime minister and finance minister Tuilaepa Sa’ilele Malielegaoi on May 27 announced a plan to cut government spending in the 2015/2016 fiscal budget. Tuilaepa said the new budget, under the theme of “living within our means,” includes projected revenues of $292 million and government expenditures of $332 million, leaving a $40 million deficit that he expects to finance via soft loans. The budget will also impose excise taxes on soft drinks, tobacco, alcohol, and fossil fuels to generate additional funds for health services and renewable energy generation.

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Looking Ahead

Asia-Pacific Economic Integration and the Role of the United States and Japan. The Japan External Trade Organization (JETRO) and CSIS Japan Chair and Simon Chair in Political Economy will cohost a conference on June 9 on the Japanese and U.S. roles in Asia-Pacific economic integration. The conference will feature expert panel discussions and keynote addresses by Senator Cory Gardner (R-CO), Principal Deputy Assistant Secretary of State Kurt Tong, JETRO chairman and CEO Hiroyuki Ishige, and JETRO New York president Toshiyuki Yokota. The event will take place from 8:00 a.m. to 1:30 p.m. in CSIS’s Second Floor Conference Center, 1616 Rhode Island Ave., NW. Click here to RSVP.

Palau: Crossroads of Security and Conservation in the Pacific. The Pacific Partners Initiative will host a Banyan Tree Leadership Forum on June 11 with President Tommy Remengesau of Palau and Senator John McCain (R-AZ). They will discuss how partnerships can be used to enhance Palau's capacity to combat illegal fishing in its newly declared marine sanctuary. The event will take place from 10:30 a.m. to 12:00 p.m. in CSIS’s Second Floor Conference Center, Room C, 1616 Rhode Island Ave., NW. E-mail the Pacific Partners Initiative to RSVP.

Pacific Day 2015. The Washington Pacific Committee will host its annual Pacific Day celebration on June 11 featuring a policy seminar cosponsored by CSIS. The seminar will include keynote addresses by U.S. and Pacific leaders and panel discussions on the key challenges and opportunities for the region. The seminar will take place from 4:00 p.m. to 6:00 p.m. The event is closed to the public, but will be webcast at www.csis.org.

The Fifth Annual South China Sea Conference at CSIS. The Sumitro Chair for Southeast Asia Studies will host CSIS’s fifth annual full-day South China Sea conference on July 21. The conference will provide opportunities for in-depth discussion and analysis of U.S. and Asian policy options and feature speakers from throughout the region. The event will take place from 9:00 a.m. to 4:30 p.m. in the CSIS Second Floor Conference Center, 1616 Rhode Island Ave., NW. To RSVP, e-mail the Sumitro Chair.

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For more from the Pacific Partners Initiative, check out our website, follow us on Facebook and Twitter, visit our blog CogitAsia, and listen to our podcast at CogitAsia and iTunes. Thank you for your interest in U.S. policy in the Pacific and the CSIS Pacific Partners Intiative. Join the conversation!

 

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Gregory B. Poling
Senior Fellow and Director, Southeast Asia Program and Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative