Latest Analysis: War with Iran

Amid ongoing U.S. and Israeli operations in Iran, CSIS experts examine the military, regional, and geopolitical implications of the conflict and its potential impacts across the Middle East and beyond.

Featured Analysis

Photo: ATTA KENARE / AFP via Getty Images

Photo: ATTA KENARE / AFP via Getty Images

The Fragile U.S.-Iran Ceasefire: Issues to Watch

A fragile ceasefire masks a far more dangerous reality: Iran’s nuclear ambitions unresolved, Lebanon destabilized, terrorism risks rising, and a shadow war between Israel and Iran poised to reignite at any moment.

Commentary by Daniel Byman — April 8, 2026

How the War in Iran is Impacting Global Energy Infrastructure | All About the Base

Video — April 6, 2026

Featured Videos

How Will the Iran War Impact the U.S. Economy? | Asked & Answered

Houthis Threaten Key Energy Choke Point

Will People Starve Because of the Iran War? | The High Top

Iran War Fueling a New Wave of Repression | Asked & Answered

Gulf States’ Uncertainty in Iran Conflict

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Experts

Seth G. Jones

Seth G. Jones

President, Defense and Security Department; Harold Brown Chair
Daniel Byman

Daniel Byman

Director, Warfare, Irregular Threats, and Terrorism Program
Emily Harding

Emily Harding

Vice President, Defense and Security Department; Director, Intelligence, National Security, and Technology Program
Benjamin Jensen

Benjamin Jensen

Director, Futures Lab and Senior Fellow, Defense and Security Department
Jon Alterman

Jon B. Alterman

Zbigniew Brzezinski Chair in Global Security and Geostrategy
Will Todman

Will Todman

Chief of Staff, Geopolitics and Foreign Policy Department; and Senior Fellow, Middle East Program
Clayton Seigle

Clayton Seigle

Senior Fellow and James R. Schlesinger Chair in Energy and Geopolitics, Energy Security and Climate Change Program
Williams

Heather Williams

Director, Project on Nuclear Issues and Senior Fellow, Defense and Security Department
Joseph Rodgers

Joseph Rodgers

Deputy Director and Fellow, Project on Nuclear Issues

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The Fragile U.S.-Iran Ceasefire: Issues to Watch

A fragile ceasefire masks a far more dangerous reality: Iran’s nuclear ambitions unresolved, Lebanon destabilized, terrorism risks rising, and a shadow war between Israel and Iran poised to reignite at any moment.

Commentary by Daniel Byman — April 8, 2026

What’s Next for Oil Markets After the Ceasefire Agreement?

The ceasefire announcement leaves more questions than answers for Gulf oil and gas exports. Iran is still in control of whether and when ships can pass—and how much that might cost under a new tolling requirement.

Critical Questions by Clayton Seigle — April 8, 2026

Iran Conflict Heightens Cyber Threats to U.S. Energy Infrastructure

As the Iran conflict intensifies, U.S. energy infrastructure faces escalating cyber threats from nation-state actors. Scale, age, and regulatory fragmentation leave the sector uniquely exposed. A successful attack would cascade across the entire U.S. economy.

Commentary by Leslie Abrahams and Lauryn Williams — April 2, 2026

Who Is Winning the Iran War?

The United States and Israel are devastating Iran's leadership and inflicting significant damage on Iran's already-weak military. Iran, however, is hitting back, and the biggest long-term costs to the United States are likely to be felt outside the Middle East.

Commentary by Daniel Byman — April 2, 2026

Options for the United States to Resolve the Iran Nuclear Challenge

The nuclear issue is likely to determine not only when the war ends, but also how it ends, and who can claim “victory.” Per Trump’s speech, there are at least three nuclear off-ramps to help the administration retreat from the conflict and avoid a costly war.

Commentary by Heather Williams and Joseph Rodgers — April 2, 2026