Russian Soft Power in the 21st Century

An Examination of Russian Compatriot Policy in Estonia

This study examines the current state of relations among Russia, Estonia, and ethnic Russians living in Estonia. The report pays special attention to the Russian Compatriot Policy, which seeks to codify the relationship of the Russian diaspora to its homeland, and to evaluate its effectiveness as a soft power foreign policy tool in Estonia. Analysis of this policy, as well as an understanding of Estonian domestic policies toward and relationships with the Russian minority within the country, has been conducted based on the results of a comprehensive survey conducted by CSIS in 2009 and 2010. The survey data were generated through interviews with over 3,000 individuals between the ages of 16 and 29, including equal numbers of Russians living in Russia, native Estonians living in Estonia, and ethnic Russians living in Estonia. This research not only helps shed light on the current state of affairs for the Russian minority in Estonia, but also gives clues as to where the situation is heading.

The report includes an overview of historical issues confronting the Estonia/Russia relationship, with a particular focus on major disagreements regarding historical interpretations of World War II and the subsequent Soviet occupation of Estonia. This includes a description of the so-called 2007 Bronze Night incident and the waves of cyber attacks that followed. Estonian citizenship policies, with specific attention to Estonian language requirements, are also examined. This is followed by an in-depth overview of the Russian Compatriot Policy in Estonia, including its reach through nongovernmental organizations, the media, legal action, and the Russian Orthodox Church.

Heather A. Conley

Theodore P. Gerber